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How this is built. Pennsylvania mail and absentee ballot return records, accepted returns only, one ballot per voter. Party is the registration party on the ballot record (Other includes unaffiliated). The 2026 cutoff is the latest return date with at least 1,000 ballots logged; the comparison year is cut at the same number of days before its own Election Day: Nov 8, 2022 midterm, Nov 5, 2024 presidential, Nov 4, 2025 municipal (vs Nov 3, 2026). Read shifts with the electorate in mind: 2024 had presidential-year turnout and 2025 was an off-year municipal race. On-demand ballots are those whose request date equals their return date: requested and cast the same day, almost always in person at a county election office.
Voters are placed on 2020 Census voting districts by census block. Comparison-year voters no longer on the file are placed through their precinct in that year's voter file snapshot, which places about 99% or more of each year's returns. Margin is Republican minus Democratic ballots as a share of all returned ballots; positive is a Republican lead. Precincts with too few ballots to read are left gray (fewer than 15 ballots in either year for comparisons, fewer than 10 in 2026 for the 2026 margin).
The most recent return day may still be filling in, which understates 2026 volume more than it moves the partisan mix.